Rove knows what he's doing

The press is falling into Rove's trap. Reporters are shocked that Rove has finally stated that Bush's low poll numbers are due to the problems with Iraq. "Finally Bush is realizing that his approval is highly linked to Iraq" they say with pride that they've finally gotten Bush to indirectly admit his failures. "Iraq looms over everything," says David Gregory on Chris Mathew's Sunday morning show. Articles in the Washington Post and on CNN.com confirm enthusiasm for Rove's candor.

Rove wants you to continue to say that his low approval numbers are because of Iraq. The more you say it, the more you're building potential for political rebound. Why? Because as time goes on, things will appear to improve in Iraq. Fewer Americans will die there as our troop levels decline and they take a smaller role in security operations. So, as our military role in Iraq continues on its natural course--regardless of its actual impact on the Iraqi people or anyone else--the appearance of improvement will inevitably improve our collective support for Bush's administration of this policy. Even if the improvement is small, Bush will gain more than he otherwise would because his team has hyped the impact of his Iraqi policy beforehand. They'll gain more by not doing anything extra. The press is doing their work for them.

With every milestone that occurs in the future, Bush will gain extra simply because Rove has gotten the press to say that his success is completely tied to Iraq. Logic follows that as success appears to occur in Iraq, then Bush is a successful president. Nevermind the long-term effects of this policy on Iraqis, the Middle East, our economy, and our credibility.

This is Rove. Why is the press shocked as though he's actually admitting failure? He's not. He's playing with your expectations regarding the war and he's playing it beautifully.